Risk Dashboard
A weighted BVC and global-ETF portfolio risk dashboard: historical VaR 95%/99% and CVaR, annualized volatility, maximum drawdown, Sharpe and Sortino, rolling volatility and correlations, and deterministic equity and rate shocks.
Risk
The Big Short, Again: What 5% Treasuries Are Really Telling Us
The 10-year Treasury above 5% is not 2008. It is the opposite kind of shock: not a credit crisis but a duration crisis, arriving in a world where the leverage has moved from the banks to private credit, the basis trade and the government itself. A field guide to what rhymes, what doesn’t, and why the real Big Short was never a prediction — it was a financing structure.
MASI below 17,000: anatomy of a correction that is not a crash
The MASI lost 7.3% between its September high and its 8 October low, and nearly 10% year to date. This is not a crash: it is a correction that exposes the structure of a market that climbed on one leg — mining — with less and less liquidity, while the global cost of capital was changing regime. What happened, what it does not say, and what to watch.