The Big Short, Again: What 5% Treasuries Are Really Telling Us
The 10-year Treasury above 5% is not 2008. It is the opposite kind of shock: not a credit crisis but a duration crisis, arriving in a world where the leverage has moved from the banks to private credit, the basis trade and the government itself. A field guide to what rhymes, what doesn’t, and why the real Big Short was never a prediction — it was a financing structure.